diff --git a/algorithms/abc_model_choice.jl b/algorithms/abc_model_choice.jl
index 44ee0ce776773ecf833542463096a613352f7a17..c5e0272696e6b0cefdf24b192263f52f316fbf17 100644
--- a/algorithms/abc_model_choice.jl
+++ b/algorithms/abc_model_choice.jl
@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
struct AbcModelChoiceDataset
models_indexes::Vector{Int}
- summary_stats_vector::Vector
+ summary_stats_matrix::Matrix
epsilon::Float64
end
@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ end
function getproperty(dataset::AbcModelChoiceDataset, sym::Symbol)
if sym == :X
- return dataset.summary_stats_vector
+ return dataset.summary_stats_matrix
elseif sym == :y
return dataset.models_indexes
else
@@ -25,21 +25,21 @@ end
function abc_model_choice_dataset(models::Vector{<:Union{Model,ParametricModel}},
summary_stats_observations,
summary_stats_func::Function, distance_func::Function,
- k::Int, N::Int)
+ k::Int, N::Int; dir_results::Union{Nothing,String} = nothing)
nbr_models = length(models)
models_prior = Categorical([1/nbr_models for i = 1:nbr_models])
- return abc_model_choice_dataset(models, models_prior, summary_stats_observations, summary_stats_func, distance_func, k, N)
+ return abc_model_choice_dataset(models, models_prior, summary_stats_observations, summary_stats_func, distance_func, k, N; dir_results = dir_results)
end
function abc_model_choice_dataset(models::Vector{<:Union{Model,ParametricModel}}, models_prior::DiscreteUnivariateDistribution,
summary_stats_observations,
summary_stats_func::Function, distance_func::Function,
- k::Int, N::Int)
+ k::Int, N::Int; dir_results::Union{Nothing,String} = nothing)
@assert length(models) >= 2 "Should contain at least 2 models"
@assert ncategories(models_prior) == length(models) "Number of categories of models' prior and number of models do not equal"
models_indexes = zeros(Int, N)
- summary_stats_vector = Vector{typeof(summary_stats_observations)}(undef, N)
+ summary_stats_matrix = zeros(eltype(summary_stats_observations), length(summary_stats_observations), N)
distances = zeros(N)
bool_parametric = typeof(models) <: Vector{ParametricModel}
for i = 1:N
@@ -52,12 +52,16 @@ function abc_model_choice_dataset(models::Vector{<:Union{Model,ParametricModel}}
else
sim = simulate(models[current_idx_model])
end
- summary_stats_vector[i] = summary_stats_func(sim)
- distances[i] = distance_func(summary_stats_vector[i], summary_stats_observations)
+ ss_i = summary_stats_func(sim)
+ summary_stats_matrix[:,i] = ss_i
+ distances[i] = distance_func(ss_i, summary_stats_observations)
end
k_nn = sortperm(distances, alg = QuickSort)[1:k]
- return AbcModelChoiceDataset(models_indexes[k_nn], summary_stats_vector[k_nn], distances[k_nn[end]])
+ if dir_results != nothing
+ dir_results = basename(dir_results) != "" ? dir_results * "/" : dir_results
+ end
+ return AbcModelChoiceDataset(models_indexes[k_nn], summary_stats_matrix[:,k_nn], distances[k_nn[end]])
end
function rf_abc_model_choice(models::Vector{<:Union{Model,ParametricModel}},
@@ -69,7 +73,7 @@ function rf_abc_model_choice(models::Vector{<:Union{Model,ParametricModel}},
@assert k <= N_ref
trainset = abc_model_choice_dataset(models, summary_stats_observations, summary_stats_func, distance_func, k, N_ref)
gridsearch = GridSearchCV(RandomForestClassifier(oob_score=true), hyperparameters_range)
- fit!(gridsearch, trainset.X, trainset.y)
+ fit!(gridsearch, transpose(trainset.X), trainset.y)
best_rf = gridsearch.best_estimator_
return RandomForestABC(trainset, best_rf, summary_stats_observations, predict(best_rf, [summary_stats_observations]))
end
@@ -84,7 +88,7 @@ function posterior_proba_model(rf_abc::RandomForestABC)
dict_params[Symbol(param)] = get_params(rf_abc.clf)[param]
end
rf_regressor = RandomForestRegressor(;dict_params...)
- fit!(rf_regressor, rf_abc.reference_table.X, y_oob_regression)
+ fit!(rf_regressor, transpose(rf_abc.reference_table.X), y_oob_regression)
return 1 - predict(rf_regressor, [rf_abc.summary_stats_observations])[1]
end
diff --git a/tests/abc_model_choice/toy_example.jl b/tests/abc_model_choice/toy_example.jl
index 3cdef11021ac3013765fcc21e5bdbbe67550e4a0..0e7dfa01154737a1fead6d30c989cf3f1b748690 100644
--- a/tests/abc_model_choice/toy_example.jl
+++ b/tests/abc_model_choice/toy_example.jl
@@ -66,7 +66,8 @@ savefig("set.svg")
grid = Dict(:n_estimators => [500], :min_samples_leaf => [1], :min_samples_split => [2], :n_jobs => [8])
@timev res_rf_abc = rf_abc_model_choice(models, ss_observations, ss_func, 29000; hyperparameters_range = grid)
-@show posterior_proba_model(res_rf_abc)
-println(classification_report(y_true = abc_testset.y, y_pred = predict(res_rf_abc.clf, abc_testset.X)))
-@show accuracy_score(abc_testset.y, predict(res_rf_abc.clf, abc_testset.X))
+@show posterior_proba_model(res_rf_abc)
+X_testset = transpose(abc_testset.X)
+println(classification_report(y_true = abc_testset.y, y_pred = predict(res_rf_abc.clf, X_testset)))
+@show accuracy_score(abc_testset.y, predict(res_rf_abc.clf, X_testset))
diff --git a/tests/abc_model_choice/toy_example_ma.jl b/tests/abc_model_choice/toy_example_ma.jl
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..39a3a7d7e1b392f0e237ee7ddb6bb7d5750cbf7d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tests/abc_model_choice/toy_example_ma.jl
@@ -0,0 +1,82 @@
+# From Pudlo: Reliable ABC model choice, 2016, Appendix B
+
+using ARFIMA
+using Random
+using LinearAlgebra
+using MarkovProcesses
+using Distributions
+using ScikitLearn
+@sk_import metrics: (accuracy_score, classification_report)
+using StatsBase: autocor
+
+struct MA1 <: Model end
+struct MA2 <: Model end
+import MarkovProcesses: simulate
+
+global N_tml = 100
+global σ = 1.0
+
+struct TriangleDist <: ContinuousMultivariateDistribution end
+function Distributions.rand(d::TriangleDist)
+ θ1 = rand(Uniform(-2, 2))
+ θ2 = (θ1 < 0) ? rand(Uniform(-θ1-1,1)) : rand(Uniform(θ1-1,1))
+ return [θ1, θ2]
+end
+Distributions.rand!(d::TriangleDist, p::AbstractVector) = p[:] = rand(d)
+Distributions.length(d::TriangleDist) = 2
+Distributions.pdf(d::TriangleDist, p::AbstractVector) = 1/8
+function simulate(m::MA1)
+ θ1 = rand(Uniform(-1, 1))
+ x = zeros(100)
+ ϵtm1 = rand(Normal(0,σ^2))
+ x[1] = ϵtm1
+ for t = 2:100
+ ϵt = rand(Normal(0,σ^2))
+ x[t] = ϵt - θ1*ϵtm1
+ ϵtm1 = ϵt
+ end
+ return x
+end
+function simulate(m::MA2)
+ θ1, θ2 = rand(TriangleDist())
+ x = zeros(100)
+ ϵtm1 = rand(Normal(0,σ^2))
+ ϵtm2 = rand(Normal(0,σ^2))
+ x[1] = ϵtm2
+ x[2] = ϵtm1 - θ1*ϵtm2
+ for t = 3:100
+ ϵt = rand(Normal(0,σ^2))
+ x[t] = ϵt - θ1*ϵtm1 - θ2*ϵtm2
+ ϵtm2 = ϵtm1
+ ϵtm1 = ϵt
+ end
+ return x
+end
+#=
+function simulate(m::MA1)
+ θ1 = rand(Uniform(-1, 1))
+ return arma(N_tml, σ, nothing, SVector(θ1))
+end
+function simulate(m::MA2)
+ θ = rand(TriangleDist())
+ return arma(N_tml, σ, nothing, SVector(θ[1],θ[2]))
+end
+=#
+
+m1, m2 = MA1(), MA2()
+models = [m1, m2]
+
+ss_func(y) = autocor(y, 1:7)
+dist_l2(s_sim,s_obs) = norm(s_sim-s_obs)
+
+observations = simulate(m1)
+ss_observations = ss_func(observations)
+abc_testset = abc_model_choice_dataset(models, ss_observations, ss_func, dist_l2, 10000, 10000)
+
+grid = Dict(:n_estimators => [300], :min_samples_leaf => [1], :min_samples_split => [2], :n_jobs => [8])
+res_rf_abc = rf_abc_model_choice(models, ss_observations, ss_func, 10000; hyperparameters_range = grid)
+@show posterior_proba_model(res_rf_abc)
+X_testset = transpose(abc_testset.X)
+println(classification_report(y_true = abc_testset.y, y_pred = predict(res_rf_abc.clf, X_testset)))
+@show accuracy_score(abc_testset.y, predict(res_rf_abc.clf, X_testset))
+
diff --git a/tests/abc_model_choice/toy_model.ipynb b/tests/abc_model_choice/toy_model.ipynb
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3387eb23c2f99ff130117f5a8368c989ba99ca9c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tests/abc_model_choice/toy_model.ipynb
@@ -0,0 +1,195 @@
+{
+ "cells": [
+ {
+ "cell_type": "markdown",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "source": [
+ "# Setup models, dataset"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": null,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "using SpecialFunctions\n",
+ "using LinearAlgebra\n",
+ "using Random\n",
+ "using Distributions\n",
+ "using MarkovProcesses\n",
+ "\n",
+ "global n = 20\n",
+ "\n",
+ "struct Model1 <: Model end\n",
+ "struct Model2 <: Model end\n",
+ "struct Model3 <: Model end\n",
+ "import MarkovProcesses: simulate\n",
+ "\n",
+ "function simulate(m::Model1)\n",
+ " param = rand(Exponential(1))\n",
+ " return rand(Exponential(param), n)\n",
+ "end\n",
+ "function simulate(m::Model2)\n",
+ " param = rand(Normal())\n",
+ " return rand(LogNormal(param,1), n)\n",
+ "end\n",
+ "function simulate(m::Model3)\n",
+ " param = rand(Exponential(1))\n",
+ " return rand(Gamma(2,1/param), n)\n",
+ "end\n",
+ "\n",
+ "m1, m2, m3 = Model1(), Model2(), Model3()\n",
+ "lh_m1(s::Vector) = exp(log(gamma(n+1)) - (n+1)*log(1+s[1]))\n",
+ "lh_m2(s::Vector) = exp(-s[2]^2/(2n*(n+1)) - (s[3]^2)/2 + (s[2]^2)/(2n) - s[2]) * (2pi)^(-n/2)*(n+1)^(-1/2)\n",
+ "lh_m3(s::Vector) = exp(s[2])*gamma(2n+1)/gamma(2)^n * (1+s[1])^(-2n-1)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "ss_func(y) = [sum(y), sum(log.(y)), sum(log.(y).^2)]\n",
+ "dist_l2(s_sim,s_obs) = sqrt(dot(s_sim,s_obs))\n",
+ "\n",
+ "observations = simulate(m3)\n",
+ "ss_observations = ss_func(observations)\n",
+ "models = [m1, m2, m3]\n",
+ "abc_trainset = abc_model_choice_dataset(models, ss_observations, ss_func, dist_l2, 29000, 29000)\n",
+ "abc_testset = abc_model_choice_dataset(models, ss_observations, ss_func, dist_l2, 1000, 1000)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "list_lh = [lh_m1, lh_m2, lh_m3]\n",
+ "prob_model(ss::Vector, list_lh, idx_model) = list_lh[idx_model](ss) / sum([list_lh[i](ss) for i = eachindex(list_lh)])\n",
+ "prob_model(ss::Vector, idx_model) = prob_model(ss, list_lh, idx_model)\n",
+ "prob_model3(ss::Vector) = prob_model(ss, list_lh, 3)\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "markdown",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "source": [
+ "# Plot"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": null,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "using Plots\n",
+ "\n",
+ "p = plot(title=\"Trainset\")\n",
+ "colors = [\"black\", \"red\", \"green\"]\n",
+ "begin_idx = 1\n",
+ "for i = 1:3\n",
+ " models_i = findall(x->x==i, abc_testset.models_indexes)\n",
+ " nbr_obs = length(models_i)\n",
+ " end_idx = begin_idx + nbr_obs - 1\n",
+ " lh = list_lh[i]\n",
+ " scatter!(p, begin_idx:end_idx, \n",
+ " vec(mapslices(prob_model3, abc_testset.summary_stats_matrix[:,models_i], dims = 1)), \n",
+ " color = colors[i], markersize = 3.0, markershape = :cross, label = \"Model $i\")\n",
+ " global begin_idx = end_idx + 1\n",
+ "end\n",
+ "p"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "markdown",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "source": [
+ "# Classification models"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": null,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "using ScikitLearn\n",
+ "@sk_import linear_model: LogisticRegression\n",
+ "@sk_import ensemble: RandomForestClassifier\n",
+ "@sk_import metrics: (classification_report, confusion_matrix)\n",
+ "@sk_import neighbors: KNeighborsClassifier\n",
+ "\n",
+ "X_trainset = transpose(abc_trainset.X)\n",
+ "X_testset = transpose(abc_testset.X)\n",
+ "\n",
+ "logit_reg = fit!(LogisticRegression(), X_trainset, abc_trainset.y)\n",
+ "y_pred_logit = predict(logit_reg, X_testset)\n",
+ "println(classification_report(y_pred = y_pred_logit, y_true = abc_testset.y))\n",
+ "\n",
+ "rf_clf = fit!(RandomForestClassifier(n_estimators=500), X_trainset, abc_trainset.y)\n",
+ "y_pred_rf = predict(rf_clf, X_testset)\n",
+ "println(classification_report(y_pred = y_pred_rf, y_true = abc_testset.y))\n",
+ "\n",
+ "knn_clf = fit!(KNeighborsClassifier(n_neighbors=20), X_trainset, abc_trainset.y)\n",
+ "y_pred_knn = predict(rf_clf, X_testset)\n",
+ "println(classification_report(y_pred = y_pred_rf, y_true = abc_testset.y))\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "markdown",
+ "metadata": {},
+ "source": [
+ "# RF ABC"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": null,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "res_rf = rf_abc_model_choice(models, ss_observations, ss_func, 29000; \n",
+ " hyperparameters_range = Dict(:n_estimators => [500]))\n",
+ "println(classification_report(y_pred = predict(res_rf.clf, X_testset), y_true = abc_testset.y))\n",
+ "println(confusion_matrix(y_pred = predict(res_rf.clf, X_testset), y_true = abc_testset.y))\n"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": null,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "dict_params = Dict()\n",
+ "for param in keys(get_params(res_rf.clf))\n",
+ " dict_params[Symbol(param)] = get_params(res_rf.clf)[param]\n",
+ "end\n",
+ "RandomForestClassifier(;dict_params...)"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": null,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": [
+ "oob_votes = res_rf.clf.oob_decision_function_\n",
+ "y_pred_oob = argmax.([oob_votes[i,:] for i = 1:size(oob_votes)[1]])\n",
+ "@show mean(y_pred_oob .== res_rf.reference_table.y)\n",
+ "@show res_rf.clf.oob_score_"
+ ]
+ },
+ {
+ "cell_type": "code",
+ "execution_count": null,
+ "metadata": {},
+ "outputs": [],
+ "source": []
+ }
+ ],
+ "metadata": {
+ "kernelspec": {
+ "display_name": "Julia 1.5.3",
+ "language": "julia",
+ "name": "julia-1.5"
+ },
+ "language_info": {
+ "file_extension": ".jl",
+ "mimetype": "application/julia",
+ "name": "julia",
+ "version": "1.5.3"
+ }
+ },
+ "nbformat": 4,
+ "nbformat_minor": 4
+}